JEREMY Hanson must be smiling. The Opposition Leader is aware that Chief Minister, Andrew Barr, is “the last man standing” following the announcement from Simon Corbell that he will not run at the next election.
Michael Moore.
Chief Minister Barr is the face of the party for the coming election and Labor’s chances seem to be diminishing.
Not too much should be read into contrasting the two quotas for then-leader Gallagher compared to one third of a quota scored by Barr and even less by Corbell. There are others within the party. The most notable was backbench Labor MLA Mary Porter scoring almost a quota on her own in the electorate of Ginninderra. Reflecting respect for her solid and constant work in the community.
Jeremy will be smiling, understanding it will now be harder for Labor to win at least 13 of the 25 seats to secure majority government.
At the October, 2016, election there will be five members elected in each of the five electorates. These electorates require winning a higher proportion of the vote than the current seven-member seat of Molonglo. Instead of around 14 per cent it will need around 20 per cent to get elected. This makes a greater challenge especially for the Greens, independents and minor parties, whom in most Assemblies Labor and Liberal have relied on to form government.
The retiring Simon Corbell.
Another advantage for the Liberals is described by parties as “poor party discipline”. A significant proportion of voters will shift columns on the ballot paper favouring individuals they think will be good representatives rather than parties. The preferences, which are so essential to building a quota, slip away. Although a sensible way to vote, it is difficult for parties. The disadvantage for Labor is that preference flows will follow known personalities.
There are rumours that the straw that broke the camel’s back for Corbell was a poor pre-selection result. However, Simon well knows that once he is on a ticket his profile will bring a flow of preferences.
The Deputy Chief Minister, across six Assembly terms, has made a significant contribution to the Territory both as a backbench member and as a minister. He is an effective political strategist. Corbell has managed many difficult portfolios including Health, Attorney General, Police, Planning, Environment and Climate Change and Education.
Unlike many ministers, he has rarely caused his government embarrassment. When announcing his intention to step out of politics at the next election, he identified some of his proudest achievements which include: light rail, climate change (with the progression towards 90 per cent renewable energy) and the passage of Australia’s first marriage equality legislation.
I recall during the counting of the 1998 election, which was so close that Corbell believed the preferences had tracked away from him and he had not been re-elected. He packed up his office.
I said to him at the time: “You’ll be back”. I think the biggest surprise to both of us was that he was back so soon; the preferences finally favoured him and delivered the seat.
The community of the ACT has been well served by the preferences falling his way. It will be interesting to see who the 2016 election favours.
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